ࡱ> 5@ 0/^bjbj22 2XXV8Lb7f"6666666$8R;7b/b/b/77J0J0J0b/6J0b/6J0 J0j0G33 p Wx/_36270b7g3,;/;336;4#J0'4*77dd$40dINTERNATIONAL PEACE AND PROSPERITY PROJECT Scouting Trip to Guinea-Bissau: Summary of Observations and Proposed Next Steps November 15, 2004 I. Introduction: Purpose of Report: This report has been prepared for the individuals who were interviewed in Guinea-Bissau in October, 2004. This is a summary of the observations of the visiting team and it outlines next steps that will be taken in response to the concerns, strengths, and opportunities identified. This document is thus informal, and is provided as a basis for further discussion. Many people gave us considerable time, and candid views of Guinea-Bissau, its politics and its people. We were also fortunate to have assistance with interpretation and logistics; and we felt warmly received by the people of Guinea-Bissau. Trip Period and Activities: A five person international team* embarked from Washington, DC on a scouting mission to Guinea-Bissau on October 16, 2004. The in-country period was scheduled from October 19 27. The trip was cut short, however, in response to a climate of fluidity and potential volatility with rumours that a coup detat could take pace on the weekend of October 23 & 24. It is noteworthy that on October 6, 2004 the head of the armed forces in Guinea-Bissau, General Verissimo Correia, had been murdered, ostensibly over a dispute concerning non-payment for peacekeeping services which had been performed by some 700 soldiers in Liberia in recent months. This event had created a climate of tension and uncertainty in the country. The viability of going ahead with the panned Scouting Trip was put in question. There were questions about the impact on the ground of this incident. Would the team get access to the people it needed to meet with to get a complete picture; would peoples views be skewed by the incident? Having satisfied ourselves that travel was possible and knowing that our arrival was anticipated and welcomed by a number of NGO contacts, the Team proceeded. With engagement and guidance from local NGO contacts, views were canvassed from representatives of the nongovernmental peace and development communities, local business persons, international institutions, including the UNDP and World Bank, political actors, and members of the diplomatic community. A field trip was taken to the northern border region and some group meetings of peace and development workers were attended. The Team was not able to gain access to senior government and military leadership (although indications of meetings were promising), most likely because of the climate after the mutiny and the governments preoccupation with the aftermath. Aim of the Trip: The trips mission was to answer the following question: Are there significant needed activities that the International Peace and Prosperity Project could do that would add real value in helping to stabilize and capacitate Guinea-Bissau so it can make progress toward prosperity? (Note: the IPPP description is appended) II. Assessing the Country Situation: In this section, both concerns and strengths that were identified in our interviews are outlined. A. Concerns: Following are some of the major points of concern noted in Guinea-Bissau: The Armed Forces A dominant concern regarding stability in Guinea-Bissau and a major factor influencing the countrys ability to carry out social and economic development activities leading to prosperity is the armed forces. The armed forces are described as having an unclear mandate, the force size inflated well beyond present external and internal security requirements, and beyond the means of the public treasury. Force size is estimated to be ten to thirty thousand strong (although an official estimate puts it at 5,000); while a relatively consistent view of those canvassed is that it should be some three thousand strong. The ethnic composition of the forces is also a concern. While the Balanta make up 40% of the general population, 95% of the armed forces (both officers and other ranks) are Balanta. The mutineers who led the recent incident involving the killing of General Seabra, a non Balanta, are Balanta. And interim President Henrique Rosa was under pressure during the period of the Trip to install a Balanta, General Tagme Na Wai, as new head of the armed forces (reported to be done as of October 28, 2004). A quick retrospective of political history since the war of liberation from Portugal, ended in 1974, shows as many as six major military-related incidents concerning political power in Guinea-Bissau. These include assassinations and coups detat, a major war confined mainly to two factions of the armed forces in 1998, the coup d'etat in 2003, leading to the present interim government under President Rosa, and the latest incident, the killing of General Seabra. Note: It has been reported in the media as of November 2/04 that the Community of Portuguese-speaking Countries (CPLC) will be sending an unarmed monitoring group to Guinea-Bissau, scheduled to arrive on November 15to help with stability, The Government In 2000, KumbaYala won the presidential election and his term was ended in a bloodless coup detat in 2003, carried out by General Seabra. Yalas presidency is described as turbulent. The populace was apparently greatly relieved that Yala had been removed, although not in exile to another country but resident in Bissau. Yala is Balanta, and represented the Social Renewal Party. The other main party is known as the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC). With Yalas departure, interim President Rosa was installed pending Presidential elections scheduled for March, 2005. Rosa is reported to be well-liked by the populace, and not interested in re-election. (In any event, the constitution does not allow an interim president installed through a coup to seek re-election.) While legislative elections were apparently conducted without serious incident in 2004, and civil society was active, including women mobilized by WANEP, the present government is reportedly not functioning effectively as a modern democratically-elected body. The public service is the largest employer in the country. There is a culture in the public service of passivity, lack of transparency, and unaccountability. The Legal System The civil, criminal, and regulatory legal system does not function effectively and there is little to no confidence in the system among the populace nor among potential investors. There is a notable absence of traditional or emergent mediating institutions in the country. It is not clear that traditional tribal leaders and elders play a dispute resolution role. The Economy There is no history of an active private sector, the country having followed a socialist ideology after independence. Almost everyone looks to the government for jobs and services. While some business people are trying to stimulate and represent business interests, the climate for investment and for conducting private business is seriously impaired. There is little to no infrastructure to support local industrialization. Electricity is scarce, roads are inadequate, the recently rehabilitated airport is just beginning to operate, the port is idle and in disrepair. There is only one bank in the country. It is privately owned, and willing only to let loans of 90 day term with 14% interest rate. Virtually all goods and commodities are imported, except for some fruits and vegetables locally produced and sold on the streets. The tax base is therefore small, with the few business people functioning in the country carrying the burden. The fishing industry is confined to a small fish processing plant that is just becoming operational. The fish stocks in coastal waters owned by Guinea-Bissau are said to be the most plentiful in West Africa. The fishing rights, however, have been assigned to the EU for some 15 million dollars US when estimates of 90 million dollars could be realized annually if the fishing were done by companies owned and operating in the country. Furthermore, the EU is reported to be giving incentives to foreign fishing companies to move from the north Atlantic to fish in Guinea-Bissau waters where there is no regulation or enforcement of the stocks taken. And, with the port not functioning, any boats that might visit Bissau for provisions and so forth go elsewhere. Oil reserves have been discovered off the coast. Some of these seabed reserves are shared with Senegal, although Guinea-Bissau is said to have considerable reserves in its own right. But the cost of extraction is said to be prohibitive. There are reports that diamonds and other precious gems are to be found inland, but there was no evidence that efforts to find and extract these are ongoing. The highest salary paid to a senior public servant is sixty dollars (US) per moth, $480 per year. Teachers wages were not paid for nine months in 2003, and they are in arrears again for the 2004 school term. Military personnel are reported to subsist in difficult conditions and often go without pay for long periods. Society While there is a free media, including national television and print journalism, anecdotal remarks are that caution must be taken when being openly critical of the government and the military. The general population is apparently habituated to elite maneuvers, including coups, and the great majority live in a reality distanced from those actors and that level of activity. Most people are simply concerned with daily survival issues. International Interest in Guinea-Bissau Guinea-Bissau is a small former Portuguese colony of 1.2 million people. International actors who do show an interest, apart from their humanitarian motives, are concerned that the country may become a failed state, and that its potential remains unrealized. On the ground, active international interest is minimal. The EU, which is reported to have earmarked some 100 million Euros for the country, is the most active international actor. China has recently shown some interest, and is quickly credited by locals with having built some public buildings and put some capital investment into the country. The USA, which no longer has an embassy in Guinea-Bissau, provided some 1.2 million in USAID in 2003, and remains active, focusing on efforts to build the cashew industry. France has some interest, but mostly through Senegal, the northerly neighbour concerned with stability along its border in the Casamance Region of Senegal. However, both Senegalese and Mauritanian banks have expressed an interest in setting up operation in Guinea-Bissau in 2005. The Swedish government has reduced the amount of its donations to Guinea-Bissau, The Dutch and British are represented by honorary consuls. The World Bank has a number of initiatives directed at building the regulatory infrastructure to attract private sector investors. The Community of Portuguese speaking-Countries is active now in efforts to stabilize the country, and the UN has established a number of programs, including UNOGBIS, the peacebuilding initiative. There is not a lot of evidence of regional pressures influencing Guinea-Bissau. The northern border shared with Senegals Casamance Region has been unstable in the past. Rebels antagonistic to the Wade government in Senegal have sought safe haven in northern Guinea-Bissau, although that rebellion appears to be losing steam and the border is largely stable. Natural Resources Guinea-Bissau is rich in agriculture and has great potential there, notably in cashew nut production, rice, and citrus fruits. It has abundant fish stocks, but realizes very little revenue from this and is not regulating that resource. It has off-shore oil, although extraction costs are considered prohibitive at this time. There are also reports of diamonds. Basic Infrastructure Basic infrastructure is seriously lacking. With only one commercial bank, there is little support of the business sector. Telephone and internet service are intermittent, electric power is sporadic, the port is not in service. B. Strengths This section briefly responds to the following question: What are the basic existing social, cultural, economic, and institutional conditions, and capacities within Guinea-Bissau that are helping to respond to these concerns? While it was not possible on the Scouting Trip to assess the relative significance of the following, Guinea-Bissau shows strength in: its natural resources, especially in agriculture and fishing; its small, determined private sector; its small, motivated cadre of civil society leaders; some freedom of press, freedom of movement, freedom of political association; an electoral apparatus which worked sufficiently well in 2004; on the whole, a history of ethnic integration of the populace; the women in this society; a desire to democratize; a general consensus regarding the problems of the country, and how these should be addressed. C. Existing Domestic and International Responses: The section responds to the following question: What specific organized programs, projects, policies or other activities are already being carried out by the government, domestic civil society, international NGOs, and international IGOs that may be addressing the above concerns? From within Guinea-Bissau, there are the following initiatives: - ongoing electoral reform and human rights work; - a small active nongovernmental community, with notable leadership provided by women, conducting dialogues with mid-rank military officers, working to build schools and mobilize women in public issues; - some university-level programs; - two chambers of commerce attempting to mobilize and represent business interests; - a new Western Union office has been established to assist in international money transfers; - the airport rehabilitation by a Portuguese company contracted to do the work; - there is an indigenous NGO running a de-mining program, employing former soldiers. From international NGOs and IGOs: - the West African Network for Peacebuilding, based in Ghana, is opening a Guinea-Bissau chapter of the network on November 15, 2004. This initiative was preceded by WINEP, a specific program in 2004 to mobilize women during the elections for the national assembly; - the ECOWAS early warning mechanism is to become active in January, 2005 with WANEP-trained monitors participating through WANEP Guinea-Bissau; - the presence of UNOGBIS, the peacebuilding initiative headed up by Joao Bernardo Honwana, a Mozambiquean with experience in Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration has conducted some reconciliation workshops involving community and military representatives. UNOGBISs mandate is to be reviewed in December 2004, and there is some expectation that it will be renewed, hopefully with a more explicit focus on Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration of soldiers; - UNDP has a number of development programs; - USAID is active, especially in the cashew business through the NGO, Enterprise Works; - ADRA implements and supports a number of community-based programs in education, refugee assistance and social services, funded by USAID. From external actors: - the Community of Portuguese-speaking Countries was active in mediating the recent agreement between the Government and the mutineers after the killing of General Seabra and the Community is sending unarmed monitors into the country; - there is some level of remittance support to the economy provided by expatriates living abroad; - the World Bank has been active in promoting a regulatory environment more supportive of the private sector and now reports that two banks from Senegal and one from Mauritania are planning to establish in Guinea-Bissau in 2005. III. Action Implications for the IPPP Project: A Note on the IPPP Strategy Before and during the Scouting Trip to Guinea-Bissau, we were encouraged to focus on action. We were encouraged to look seriously at the need to reform the military. We were encouraged to consider the economic needs of the country and think of ways to respond to those. We also wanted to build on what is known and what exists of promise, including efforts to stimulate the economy and bolster community-based efforts at building a vibrant civil society. The International Peace and Prosperity Project is based on an approach that fosters a holistic, integrated approach. The IPPP is intended to be, in essence, a catalyst to stability, peace and prosperity. It will not duplicate effort already ongoing nor will it concentrate on direct delivery of one or more stand-alone programs or services. In its post-trip session, considering the strengths and concerns it noted in Guinea-Bissau, the Team identified a set of actions that could form the core of the IPPP in Guinea-Bissau. These are areas in which we believe the IPPP can assist in helping to stabilize Guinea-Bissau, and contribute to peace and prosperity there. Some require that we move rather quickly and they will be short-term activities; some of these early steps will extend into the future; and others will be longer-term. Next Steps The plan of action will entail several elements, including: - a process of reporting back to Guinea-Bissau, commencing immediately with the distribution of this Summary; - a process of reporting out to external stakeholders, drawing attention to the interests and needs of Guinea-Bissau; - a series of activities to support ongoing efforts to stabilize the country; - an multi-stakeholder in-country workshop in early 2005 to confirm the findings noted here and to jointly design an action plan to fill identified gaps and to support those current activities that have merit; -an in-country-program, located at a dedicated IPPP Guinea-Bissau office, including a small seed grant fund to add support to key areas of need. * Team Membership Dr. Ben Hoffman, Head of Team & Project Director Dr. Michael Lund, Senior Technical Advisor to the Project Mr. Jeff Mapendere, Senior Associate, The Carter Center, Project Consultant Mr. Peter Lauenstein-Denjongpa, Logistics Ms. Silja Paasilinna, Project Consultant International Project for Peace and Prosperity (IPPP) IPPP came into being out of the motivation of Milt Lauenstein, a retired American business executive and avid reader about international affairs. In 2002, Milt became concerned about the amount of continuing political violence and bloodshed in the world and resolved to launch a specific activity that could make a discernible difference in reducing it. He convened a small, ad hoc, multi-national group of specialists to seek their advice about what such an activity might do. The group held several discussions to review the international communitys current preparedness for dealing with the social and political instabilities that are impeding the development of many impoverished countries. It decided to formulate an initiative that might help prevent such threats from seriously destabilizing such countries in the first place. The group thought that one of the most value-added things a modest project could achieve is to identify a particular country that faces the possibility of social deterioration and political instability, but has strong potential for development. The project would assist groups and organizations in the country to manage disruptive tensions and disputes over social and political issues so they do not escalate into destructive violence, as well as to strengthen the governing and other institutions and policies that are needed to advance to further development. The approach of the IPPP is to work closely with individuals and organizations in such a country to assess its current vulnerabilities and opportunities through a focused, research-based and collaborative process. This joint process will seek to identify the key impediments to stability and development. It will then define and promote the application of the most effective mix of domestic and international measures that can be taken in the short and longer term to strengthen that countrys ability to manage public issues in a peaceful manner and to galvanize its energies more squarely behind national development. By engaging both domestic and international actors in this process, the project might help remove key obstacles to development, thus placing the country more assuredly on a positive track. Although many international agencies and domestic actors are already active in such countries, they often lack a shared, coherent and collaborative approach, as well as sufficient resources, for addressing leading sources of insecurity and potential instability. Through organizing an in-country process for joint analysis of problems and a review of the existing policies and programs, the project seeks to engender a coherent approach to reversing a countrys destabilizing tendencies and building on its strengths. By involving partners in the host country as well as international agencies in the project so as to foster synergies and achieve multiplier effects, the group envisions that the project can act as a catalyst that focuses domestic and international energies on the most effective ways to move beyond a countrys unproductive tensions. A well-designed, indigenously formulated strategy for achieving prosperity through peaceful processes might thereby attract additional aid and investment. As a first step, the group commissioned a survey of the many existing international early warning systems in order to list a number of countries that face possible threats to stability and development in the coming years but that are not likely to receive sufficient international attention. It is now exploring the feasibility of launching the project in one of those several countries. Among the candidate countries for the project, the group chose Guinea-Bissau as a possible pilot. 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