ࡱ> hjg@ [bjbjצצ +pQ~~~8$,'(:"\\\\\\ '"'"'"'"'"'"'$W(R*hF' \\ F'\\[']#]#]# \\ ']# ']#]#%&\ hWA~!& 'q'0'&+M"+(&+&\\L]#F\\\F'F'~G#~ MISSION POSSIBLE A Ripe Opportunity to Avert Violent Conflict And Achieve Sustainable Peace in Guinea-Bissau March 2005 The Global Turn to Prevention Since the mid-1990s, major governments, the UN, development and regional organizations, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have increased their determination to prevent future violent conflicts like the genocide and wars in Rwanda, Bosnia, and the Congo. This call for conflict prevention arose out of bitter experience in having to cope with the aftermath of those and other intra-state wars that erupted in the 1990s. Such conflicts have caused millions of deaths, torn their societies apart, spawned huge refugee camps, reversed development progress, and spilled over into neighboring states. They have required the international community to expend huge sums on humanitarian relief and post-conflict peacekeeping and reconstruction. As the mass media have come to realize the human drama in these wars, popular films such as Hotel Rwanda and television documentaries have sensitized a widening global public to the horrors of the civil wars, ethnic massacres and other human calamities in many underdeveloped countries. After the events of 9/11, more people also realized that poor and remote countries that are experiencing conflict and turmoil, such as Afghanistan, can produce direct threats to the national security of the developed societies. When states break down or are largely ineffective, they can breed terrorism, drug trafficking, and organized crime. Increased development aid and proposals for debt relief are being advocated as a way to strengthen international stability. The World Bank, the European Commission, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and other major bilateral donors all have been seeking to mainstream conflict perspectives into their regular development programming. The key place of prevention in these efforts was underscored in the recent report of the UN High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change. Contrary to a widespread assumption, the UN and other major international actors have not always ignored the early warning signs of imminent violent conflicts or state failure. Despite well-known failures to act promptly as seen recently in Darfur, Sudan at other times, international entities have helped to head off or contain the escalation of emerging violent conflicts. Examples are Macedonia, the Baltic states, Venezuela, and Cote DIvoire. These efforts have proceeded in quiet ways that are rarely covered by the media, and they are not always described as conflict prevention. For example, in early 2005, behind-the-scenes international diplomacy played a role in avoiding possible civil war in Ukraine and making a peaceful political transition possible. At this moment, the poor but plucky West African country of Guinea-Bissau presents an urgent situation that is ripe for acting again on the policy commitments to preventing violent conflicts and state collapse. Where is Guinea-Bissau? Situated on the western-most tip of Africa, to the south of Senegal and north of Guinea (Conakry), Guinea-Bissau is a largely agricultural society of 1.3 million people. Since fighting a long war to achieve independence from Portugal in 1974, Guinea-Bissau (GB) has suffered recurrent military coups and putsches, keeping it in a state of chronic instability that has thwarted its development. It is still staggering from the destruction of its economy caused by a short but violent popular rebellion in 1998-99. In the latest violent episode unsettling the country, an uprising of soldiers in October, 2004 assassinated the Army Chief of Staff, believing that he had withheld overdue wages from their peacekeeping service in Liberia. According to close observers, the leading sources of instability in this still young, weak state include the: decline in rice and other agricultural production, requiring month to month emergency food provisions; lack of revenue to support basic health and education services and to pay government workers and soldiers, worsened by government graft and corruption; failure of its post-socialist economy to generate job-producing alternatives to its still-bloated public sector, as well as to the privatization that has begun; continuing shadow that is cast over its civilian politics by the pattern of attack and revenge among various military leaders and their factions within the armed forces, which are paradoxically both dominant and ill-equipped; and unemployed, poorly trained youth who are potentially recruitable for political and military ventures. So far, observers do not see the signs of imminent violence of the kind that Hotel Rwanda portrays in that country in early 1994. But Guinea-Bissau is listed on most of the extant global early warning watch lists as one of the countries that faces the serious prospect of significant violent conflict in the coming few years. Especially worrisome is the possibility that the recurrent factional fighting in the military will spill over from the barracks into civilian party politics and will activate the societys underlying ethnic rivalries. Rumors are heard of weapons being stashed away. Observers are also concerned that radical Islamists could gain a foothold in the countrys sizeable Muslim population, and that its largely stateless countryside provide attractive havens for criminal activity, arms trafficking, and local warlords. GB is emitting more than sufficient signals of an impending deeper crisis and possible open violent conflict to warrant urgent and vigorous preventive action. The international community could take a wait-and-see attitude, as it has imprudently done in other cases with these warning signs. But then it would be too late to be effective when the larger collapse and violence occurs that many predict. The only option left would be the typically costly, reactive response of providing humanitarian aid and debating a peacekeeping force, for which global resources are already overstretched. Once again, as with Rwanda, the UN and other key actors in the international community would be exposed to international criticism and shame. If you saw these warning signs, why didnt you do something when you had the chance? What Is Already Being Done Despite the presence of many risk factors, however, the prospect of violent conflict in GB is not inevitable. Many leaders and citizens in Guinea-Bissau are currently at work trying to overcome their countrys chronic instability. After the bloodshed and destruction of the 1998-99 war, no one, including those in the military ranks, desires a repetition of the violence and political turmoil of past years. All want to improve their low standard of living. What is intriguing about GB is that, although the warning signs of serious further deterioration and conflict are definitely present, the country is not yet so highly polarized, nor so close to a precipice that it would be unable to avert a crisis. Many people in GB are working to avoid repetition of the past, which is seen in several hopeful trends of the last few years: A number of NGOs, along with a small business community, are trying to fill service gaps left by its weak state capacity. In the process, they are also seeking to create an independent civil society that could provide the political ballast that is needed to keep the ship of state on a right course. Womens groups, for example, are becoming active and have stood up to excesses by armed forces and engaged them in dialogues. A series of national envisioning exercises and reconciliation conferences have articulated certain basic goals and affirmed the need for cooperative action GB has a democratic constitution in place that is broadly respected. Elections, inter-party political negotiations, and legislation have proceeded peacefully. The countrys fledgling media are relatively free, and open public debate is possible. The interim President and prominent religious leaders are interested in advancing a peacebuilding agenda. The new Chief of the Armed Forces is visibly taking steps to reconcile factions within the armed forces, working side-by-side with his civilian counterpart, the Minister of Defense. Guinea-Bissau also illustrates that the international community has not always totally ignored places with the potential for violent conflict. This is most obvious in the presence of the UN Peace-building Support Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNOGBIS) since 1999. Headed by a former military man who is trained in conflict resolution and has peacebuilding experience in Mozambique, the mandate of UNOGBIS is to encourage national reconciliation, the rule of law, respect for human rights, constitutional normality, and peace with Guinea-Bissau's neighbors. This mandate was strengthened in December, 2004, so that UNOGBIS now has a direct line to the UN Security Council and sends it situation reports every three months, for GB is now a high profile country on the UN radar screen. In addition, UNDP, UNICEF, the WFP, the World Bank, the IMF and several bilateral donors are providing food aid, monetary support, and assistance for demobilization and governance reforms. The Banks Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) process of 2000 elevated anti-poverty to a central place in national policy planning. Diplomatic missions by the Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries (CPLP) have engaged political and military leaders in the crucial issues of demobilization and reintegration. The regional organization, the Economic Community of Western African States (ECOWAS), is also watching developments in GB. In short, Guinea-Bissau has some of the ingredients that have helped other poor, developing societies weather the tensions and instability that are associated with making wrenching transitions to a modern, democratic state. A Window of Opportunity Even though GB leaders and citizens are apparently beginning to get their act together, however, ensuring against the states complete collapse and the resumption of armed violence requires a more focused and vigorous domestic effort, supported by further modest but targeted international assistance. Due to the 1998-99 war and continuing political instability, donors and private investors understandably have been reluctant to put resources into Guinea-Bissau. Some donors pulled out a few years ago. But now, the international community has no reason not to take further deliberate steps to avoid a major crisis by putting the country more firmly on track, in concert with the people of Guinea-Bissau. The small scale of the country and its problems means that relatively modest, but strategically focused efforts can make a discernible difference. But the situation will not change if the international community awaits the spontaneous emergence of some mystical, diffuse domestic political will. The current positive trends need to be actively nurtured, energized and supported in order to reverse the habitual beggar thy neighbor practices that are daily sapping GBs otherwise productive social and governmental energies. Hence, Guinea-Bissau presents a ripe opportunity for national, international and regional actors to work together in a more organized and focused way that would enable it to avert further conflict and deterioration and pick itself up. By applying the documented lessons of past instances of effective international conflict prevention, this effort could possibly transform GB into a doable African model of timely and effective international peaceful intervention. Next Steps: A Strategic Compact for National Reconciliation and Renewal? Concretely, what is most needed is to take specific action steps to implement the national goals that have been set out. Building upon and rewarding the emerging efforts for reconciliation and renewal, a coherent and public campaign needs to exert more concentrated leverage especially on the leading political, military, and development drivers of potential violent conflict and obstacles to a sustainable peace. How such a GB-owned but internationally supported national process of reconciliation and renewal would work cannot be prescribed in detail. But certain guidelines and processes seem to be most fruitful. A coherent, effective strategy needs to be specified. This strategy should comprise a package of integrated measures that are targeted on key threats to stability, short-term and longer-term. Scattered and piecemeal measures that are not linked together, at least loosely, will not suffice to build the public and international political momentum and confidence that are needed. The needed collective action should be as inclusive as possible. However, it must be aimed effectively at reducing the main immediate and structural sources of potentially wider violent conflict, and at bolstering GBs governmental and non-governmental capacities for managing the tensions and disputes that arise when national transitions are underway. Given the history of instability, international help realistically needs to be able to set certain conditions. Certain domestic quids need to be promised and actively worked toward, in return for certain international quos. In particular, specific potential triggers of violence require immediate attention in the next few months. Otherwise, they could easily unravel the gathering threads of cooperation. One is the threat of further attack and recrimination within the military. Vigorous efforts should be made now to engage military leaders in a practical program of modernization. Support for paying soldiers, upgrading of poor living conditions, and training for younger recruits, should be offered in return for agreement to a phased process of professionalization and downsizing, informed by a military audit, i.e., needs assessment. Another pressing threat is that of disruption or irregularities in the presidential election, originally scheduled for March, 2005 but currently postponed until May. A code of conduct may be needed to deter any provocative candidate behavior, such as ethnic incitement, along with technical assistance to the Electoral Commission for administering the elections. It is essential that the elections be conducted properly and their outcome be viewed as legitimate, so a credible government can take charge. Necessary accompaniments to these short-term measures and public sector reforms will be more vigorous efforts to stimulate job-providing enterprises, in order to absorb decommissioned soldiers, redundant government workers, and other unemployed. Credit needs to be available to stimulate commercial activity that can increase the countrys ability to process its own natural resources and agricultural products. Quick start programs can also begin to tackle the most egregious infrastructure needs. A symbolic first step might be provided by the early dredging of the port, now obstructed with ruined hulks, to let the world know that Guinea-Bissau is now open for business and is beginning to pursue a path of prosperity for all its citizens. Also, for a time, government ministries that supply vital health and food needs require continued financial support to pay for salaries and provisions. But this support should act as a promissory note and confidence builder, its continuation being contingent upon adequate performance in gradually achieving an agreed-on program of increasing government efficiency and reducing corruption. The continuing need for emergency food and financial support cannot become an excuse for conducting government business as usual, for this would enable dysfunctional and harmful practices to continue. In sum, reducing GBs short-term vulnerabilities to instability and stimulating some promising economic activity will make discernible progress toward a sustainable peace and prosperity more possible. The specific procedures through which to organize and implement these efforts, as part of a national GB strategic compact with international actors, need to be pinned down through meetings of government and civil society leaders. A useful first step could be to consolidate and revalidate the national goals that various recent GB gatherings have set for the country. Concrete, realistic objectives then need to be defined for each key problem area. These objectives must have realistic benchmarks for given time periods, and thus be able to meet the reasonable expectations of concerned international actors and funders. To reach them, public/private working groups or commissions could tackle the operational issues in security sector modernization, civil service reform, business development, infrastructure, social services, and education. The progress made toward specific goals could be monitored by a civil society organization, and reported through the media. Compacts of this sort carried out in specific countries through negotiated partnerships between governments, civil society, and a phalanx of international players were successful in the CSCE processes in Eastern Europe in the late 1980s. More recently, the EUs Lome and Cotonou processes and NEPAD represent similar processes in Africa. In sum, a vigorous and focused GB/international strategic compact and domestic campaign for national reconciliation and renewal is both feasible and could effectively deter the divisive, violent, destabilizing behaviors that the present situation will otherwise likely default to. This joint action would empower Guinea-Bissau to grasp its present opportunity to achieve sustainable peace and eventual prosperity, keeping it off the front pages in the coming months and years. This statement was prepared by the International Project for Peace and Prosperity (IPPP), based on background study followed by two visits to GB in December, 2004 and January, 2005 for consultations with government, civil society, country specialists, and international agencies. The IPPP is a team of international professionals who have systematically gathered the lessons of successful and unsuccessful conflict prevention and are experienced in the skills of peacebuilding in Africa and other regions of the world. In 2004, it identified Guinea-Bissau from many extant early warning lists as one of several countries that face the prospect of further instability or conflict in the coming months and years but are also amenable to preventive action. Based on its analysis and consultations, the IPPP regards Guinea-Bissau as a promising prospective demonstration project in results-oriented preventive peacebuilding. It seeks to play a catalytic role in assisting Guinea-Bissau citizens and international actors to implement concrete actions through dialogue, focused facilitation for problem-solving, and global advocacy to obtain international backing. In these ways, IPPP endeavors to help manage the disruptive tensions and disputes that arise over social and political change so they do not escalate into destructive violence, and to strengthen the governing and other institutions and policies that are needed to advance to further development. To gain wider attention for GBs situation and efforts and to begin to mobilize more energy and support behind them, the IPPP through the Alliance for Conflict Prevention and Resolution in Washington, D.C. is holding a peacegaming exercise in the summer, 2005 that will engage GB participants, US agencies, and others in examining GBs obstacles and opportunities. IPPP came into being out of the motivation of Milt Lauenstein, a retired American business executive and avid reader about international affairs. In 2002, Milt became concerned about the amount of continuing political violence and bloodshed in the world, and he resolved to launch a specific activity that could make a discernible difference in reducing it. In 2004, he convened a small, ad hoc, multi-national group of conflict, peacebuilding, and development specialists to seek their advice about what such an activity might do. That group decided that one of the most value-added things a modest project could achieve is to identify a particular country that faces the prospect of social deterioration and political instability, but has strong potential for development. Milt Lauenstein is providing the seed money for the Guinea-Bissau initiative. For more information on IPPP or to provide advice or support, please contact Ben Hoffman, Ph.D. Project Director, at  HYPERLINK mailto:hoffmanben@hotmail.com hoffmanben@hotmail.com, or Michael Lund, Technical Director, at  HYPERLINK "mailto:mslund@verizon.net" mslund@verizon.net PAGE  PAGE 8 The International Peace & Prosperity Project (IPPP) 1 Nicholas Street, Suite 1105 Ottawa, Ontario K1N 7B7 Canada ________________________________________________________________ The International Peace & Prosperity Project (IPPP) 1 Nicholas Street, Suite 1105 Ottawa, Ontario K1N 7B7 Canada ________________________________________________________________ r6  # !"#V$W$X$(B.C.$/=/>/m0552666H7`788]:^:_:f:h:k::ñáññáÔñááttñdddh>hE5CJOJQJ^Jh>hB5CJOJQJ^Jh>h>5CJOJQJ^Jhc5CJOJQJ^Jh>hc6CJOJQJ^J"h>hc5>*CJOJQJ^Jh>hc5CJOJQJ^Jh>h9CJOJQJ^Jh>hcCJOJQJ^Jh>hwCJOJQJ^J'Crs~ -.56  #$ wx & Fgdcgdcgd9gdcY[xijZ[ !!""##W$X$&&C''(((B.C.$ 0d*$a$gdc & Fgdcgdc & FgdcC.$/%/=/>/m0n0445526367788::;;h<i<"=#=>> & Fgdc & Fgdc$a$gdcgdc::b?m?HHJJVKWKMMMSSUiXkXXX Y߿߯߯ߝteVeCe%jh>hcCJOJQJU^Jh>hwCJOJQJ^Jh>hcCJOJQJ^Jh>hcOJQJ^Jh>hc5OJQJ^Jh>h\b5OJQJ^J"h>hc5>*CJOJQJ^Jh>h|5CJOJQJ^Jh>hv5CJOJQJ^Jh>h\5CJOJQJ^Jh>hc5CJOJQJ^Jh>hE5CJOJQJ^J>@@vBwBCCFFFFJJL LMMMSSUUjXkX 1$7$8$H$gdc &d P gdc & Fgdc & Fgdcgdc & Fgdc Y Y Y"Y#YMYNYuYvYwYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYֶ~m`VPVPLVPVAVPh>0JmHnHuhU hU0JjhU0JUh>hcOJQJ^J h>hw0JCJOJQJ^J+jh>hwCJOJQJU^Jh>hwCJOJQJ^J%jh>hwCJOJQJU^Jh>hcCJOJQJ^J h>hc0JCJOJQJ^J%jh>hcCJOJQJU^J+jh>hcCJOJQJU^JkXYYYYYYYZVZWZXZZZ [ [ [[[$a$gd);~$a$gdw $h]ha$gdwh]hgdw &`#$gdw 1$7$8$H$gdcYYZZVZXZZZZ [ [[[ÿh>hcOJQJ^Jh>hUh*1hU5OJQJ^JhUOJQJ^Jh*1hUOJQJ^J&h*1hU5CJOJQJ\^JaJ ) 01h:pw/ =!"#$%DyK hoffmanben@hotmail.comyK <mailto:hoffmanben@hotmail.comDyK mslund@verizon.netyK 4mailto:mslund@verizon.net8@8 cNormal_HmH sH tH DA@D Default Paragraph FontViV  Table Normal :V 44 la (k(No List 0>@0 cTitle$a$52B@2 c Body Text5BQ@B c Body Text 31$7$8$H$CJ0U@!0 c Hyperlink>*B*4@24 wHeader  !4 @B4 wFooter  !.)@Q. w Page NumberSpCrs~-.5 6 # $  wxijZ[WXC B&C&$'%'='>'m(n(,,--2.3.//002233h4i4"5#56688v:w:;;>>>>BBD DEEEKKMMjPkPQQQQQQQRVRWRXRRR S S SS0000000000000000000x0000000 0 0 0 0 00000000000000x 0 0 0 0 0 00 00 0 0 0 0 0 000(0(0x0(0(0(0(0(0( 000 000 00000000 000 000x 0808 080808080080808000@0@0@0x0@0H00H0H0P0P00@000@0@0@0@0@000@m@0@0@0x@00 0 0PX : YY[.357xC.>kX[/1246[0P Q"QMQvQQSXX !!TN ).OePlQeR\eSeTdU iVl iW, iX iY iZl i[, i\\f]f^$ o_5`da|bcԺ4def4agh|ij,oklL).mn05od/p}qd ]r5s<tu Wvcwį5xk:yz i{[|*}f~ܓ4 _L|4p4l45O5\O5E44F4$dd.5.5Ħ?@ABCDEFGLHIJKMRNOPQS 'qq??( / /   ! ! 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